Date: 11.16.1998
DANIEL YANKELOVICH, 74, of Yankelovich Partners, is a pioneer in social and political research. We share lunch at the serene Essex House restaurant in New York City. He's in the process of moving from his Connecticut house to La Jolla, Calif. for the winter.
Taking a break from packing, he shares his thoughts on the big picture. He sets the tone by dropping a bombshell: "It's not an exaggeration right now to say the world economy hinges on the outlook of the American consumer." How's that? Not the Asian economy? Not the trade deficit? Not spending on technology? Not on what Greenspan does, or on how badly Long-Term Capital Management hurt the world's banking system?
Yankelovich brushes all that aside. So long as Americans keep flashing plastic in the malls, the world economy will do okay. So long as they keep buying French wine and Japanese cars and Korean sneakers and taking Mexican vacations, those countries will be able to buy American goods and services and the world will keep humming. The only worry is that Americans could be scared into not spending. We ask him to explain.
The analysis gets a bit complicated, but it's worth following. He thinks the American psyche undergoes periodic cultural revolutions through what he calls a "lurch-and-learn" process. In the 1970s we lurched from a postdepression mentality into a smug comfort zone almost overnight. In the decades since, we've been sorting it out, learning as we go. A waterfall trickles on behind us.
Yankelovich, pleasant but formal, keeps going. "In the 1950s we sacrificed for family, for God and country. In the 1960s we questioned whether we needed to sacrifice like mom and dad did if times were good. In the 1980s sacrifice went out of fashion as we settled into the Have-It-All Era. "In the decade of the 1990s we discovered that 'having it all' doesn't work," he explains.
The drug culture brought sad consequences. Freer sex ran into the AIDS epidemic. So-called quality time--in which parents could juggle highly demanding careers and the needs of their family without any tradeoff--has become a horrible joke. "The culture of affluence is fading now," he says. It's being replaced by a new interest in the spiritual side of life. "It's a yearning that has nothing to do with church and sectarianism, but with a search for why the so-called material good life does not bring happiness. "Our children are growing up with lots of possessions--but will they become responsible, sharing adults?"
As a mother, I am too shaken by that remark to take a bite of my lobster salad. Recovering, I ask for a name for the new era. Crab cake on fork, Yankelovich says, "Hmmm . . . okay: It's the You-Can't-Have-It-All Decade." Good-bye to smugness--and goodbye, too, to the illusion that we could spend our way to happiness. And how does this affect economics, world prosperity? The consumer confidence level, as measured by the Conference Board, a New York City think tank, has been declining rapidly. Yankelovich thinks it will fall even more as have-it-all gets replaced by can't-have-it-all.
Looking up from his food, he glances at other diners, then returns to his theme. "Now it gets interesting because of what's happening in the stock market," he says. While we were lunching, it was going down rather alarmingly. He worries that writers have already started using the words "crash" and "depression." That bothers him. If the headlines scare people enough, they may cut up some of their credit cards.
Using these words, he says, is irresponsible: Our economic fundamentals are sound, given our low inflation and interest rates, coupled with our dominance as the world's center of information technology. Even if we have a recession, it will be controllable. It won't build on itself. To quote F.D.R., the only thing we have to fear is fear itself? He nods. "If the American consumer stops believing in the future, stops taking risks and slips into gloom, it could trigger a global depression."
Would he describe the new mood as a return to the values and customs of the Eisenhower era? "Society never really turns back. In 1998 Americans are more discriminating, and with uncertainty creeping into the economy, more risk-averse. They realize they can't have the wonderful career without some tradeoff in their quality of life." Does that mean fewer women in the work force? Does it mean that workaholics will kick back and become beach or ski bums? Not necessarily, he answers: "It's hard to quit when you're ahead. Many are wondering and dreaming--but not acting."
But people's dreams influence how they act and their attitude toward their work. Taking a sip of his bottled water, Yankelovich strikes a note similar to the one struck by Peter Drucker in FORBES' cover story of Oct. 5: "In terms of workplace, we're talking about more dialogue and less command and control. You don't hire people from the neck down anymore." "If a chief executive has a vision, the success of the company depends on his associates' buying into the vision and taking it as their own. You achieve nothing by handing your staff the vision statement and stating: 'These are the orders. Follow them.' It just doesn't work that way.
"Today we have a wonderfully complex mix of the old and the new. I'm sure that Bill Gates does not run a wonderfully democratic organization. But he does give his employees a great deal of liberty in how they do their work. That's what people care about. Americans simply will not put up with unquestioned authority, be it the government, the church, the boss or even the doctor."
Touching on a delicate subject, I ask him about losing his wife three years ago in a car accident. Has it colored his view of the world? "No," he says. It hasn't. "Sure, it could lead to feeling there is nothing but chaos in the world," he says softly, "and that life is hard and painful, but it isn't. My view of the future is positive, and my work actually contributes to that view. I have enormous respect for the public's judgment over the long haul. It gives me faith in our future."
It's an interesting perspective, putting culture and psychology ahead of economics. Yankelovich figures that Americans will keep trooping to the shopping centers but will also be spending more time in church. They will continue to savor the good life--but will spend more time pondering its meaning.
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